Prediction: Drought Should Ease in Specified Areas (Posted By Gary Cutrer)

Drought continues but easing expected in some areas.

Drought continues but easing expected in some areas.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific transitioned to ENSO-neutral during Spring 2012, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Predition Center. ENSO-related climate anomalies were not used in this outlook since ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue this summer. Tropical Storm Beryl brought a swath of heavy rain across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia northward through southeastern Virginia, easing drought conditions, while much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast were drenched by heavy thunderstorm activity. Further drought improvement is likely across Florida and the coastal Southeast as seabreeze driven thunderstorms continue during the summer months, while summer convection is less likely to ease long term drought conditions in the southeastern Piedmont region. Persistence and slight expansion of drought can be expected across the central/southern Great Plains and middle Mississippi Valley. During the upcoming three month period, drought persistence is expected across the Great Basin and central Rockies due to a dry climatology. The onset of the monsoon season may bring some relief to portions of the Southwest. Beneficial rainfall during the next two weeks along with a wet summer climatology favor improvement across the upper Mississippi Valley.

Forecaster: A. Allgood and B. Pugh

Next Outlook issued: June 21, 2012 at 8:30 AM EDT

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